2018-06-10: Weekly update on OMXS30, SP500 and Euro/Dollar

We entered last week with the SP500, OMXS30 and Euro/dollar more or less oversold, with an upswing being the most probable scenario. In the case of the American index and the euro, that is what happened. For the OMX, however, the buyers remained weak (very weak considering the heavy drop of the previous weeks), leaving tails on all the candles of the week.



What has happened?

After falling for over two weeks and stopping at the strong resistance level around 1550, a rebound looked due. Last week the buyers made several attempts to thrust higher, just to be pushed back, closing below the opening level almost all days. At the moment the index is oversold, with a small move to the upside within reach, but in the long term picture is looking increasingly gloomy.

What to expect?

As noted, in the short term a push to the upside appear plausible. At least to the 1580 level, and EMA-20, or, in the best scenario, up to just under 1600 and MA-200. In that case, one needs to keep an eye on the new, potential, uptrend which can be traced by extending a line from the two previous lows (the non-dotted line on my chart).

Should we break down, the important level is to be found around the previous low and the long-term uptrend. Here, however, we find massive support and it is thus reasonable to expect some rough price-action.

Long-term view: Negative
Mid-term view: Neutral/Negative
Short-term view: Negative



What has happened?

Since breaking from the trading-box marked on the chart, the SP500 has been trending upwards. The bears made a few attempts to push down, but stood no chance, with all lost territory being regained the following day. All in all, this looks very positive to me.

What to expect?

At the moment price is approaching 2800, an area where the bears have taken the upper two times previously. Thus, the edge is not set for a clean entry, but minor setbacks may provide opportunities to go long. On the downside, I see positive formations around MA20, around 2740, as worth buying. Should we break below that level, the first important support will be 2700, and the roof of the box and, then, the long-term trend. That being said, I remain bullish on the SP500.

Long-term view: Positive
Mid-term view: Positive
Short-term view: Positive




What has happened?

The support around the upward trend, where the major drop was stopped, appears to hold firm. Price action is still choppy and it remains to be seen as to whether this is the turning point that we have been waiting for.

What to expect?

Here, in my opinion, the brave investor might test his luck, positioning him-/herself for a jump. It is a risky bet, against the short, and mid-term, trends. However, the long-term trend is still intact, and this is what we should be betting on.

Long-term view: Neutral
Mid-term view: Negative
Short-term view: Neutral/Positive




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